How Can Third Party Candidates Affect the Electoral College System
(CNN)Democrats are right to be concerned that former Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz is thinking about an independent run for the White Firm because the almost likely outcome of whatsoever strong third-party challenge in 2022 is the re-election of President Donald Trump.
Expect no farther for testimony than from quondam New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg, someone who contemplated an contained run in 2022 against Trump and Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton but is at present because a bid as a Democrat for 2020.
Reacting to Schultz's comments on CBS' "lx Minutes" Dominicus almost an independent bid, Bloomberg issued a argument Monday that said, "The data was very clear and very consistent. Given the strong pull of partisanship and the realities of the electoral college system, there is no style an contained can win. That is truer today than ever before."
At that place are ii scenarios that could unfold every bit a effect of a stiff third-party challenger and both of them end up with Trump's re-ballot because of i major cistron: the Constitution of the United states of america.
With the elections of 2022 and 2000 still fresh in the minds of a lot of voters, most Americans have a basic awareness of the Constitution'south rules for how presidents are elected: whoever wins the bulk of electoral votes becomes president. Today, at that place are 538 votes in the Balloter Higher based on the make-upwardly of Congress (which has 435 Firm members and 100 senators) plus three more votes for the Commune of Columbia. The candidate who wins 270 or more electoral votes -- a simple majority of that 538 -- volition win the presidency.
What is less well understood is the procedure for choosing a president when nobody wins that 270-vote majority. The Constitution includes a clear remedy: the president is chosen by the House of Representatives. Only instead of 435 members of the House merely voting to cull the president, each land's delegation votes equally a cake. That means the 53 House members from California all combined have the aforementioned number of votes as the lone House member from Alaska: one.
Even though the new 116th Congress has a Democratic bulk in the Firm, Republicans actually control more than state delegations. Currently, 26 states have Republican-bulk delegations, 22 states have Democratic-majority delegations and 2 states are tied. So if the electric current House of Representatives were to select a president with each land having i vote, the Republican would surely win.
Imagine the following hypothetical Balloter College consequence on Ballot Day 2020: Republican Donald Trump with 130; Independent Howard Schultz with 190; and the Democratic nominee with 218. Despite Trump winning the to the lowest degree number of electoral votes in this scenario, if the makeup of Congress remains the same, the winner of the presidency would be Trump.
This is why Democrats are so concerned nearly an independent candidacy by a moderate Democrat similar Schultz. At that place are two principal scenarios in which Schultz can help re-elect Trump.
The first scenario is the "John Quincy Adams" scenario, which mimics the hypothetical scenario in a higher place just is notable because it actually happened. In the election of 1824, Andrew Jackson won the popular vote and 99 electoral votes, which was more whatever other candidate. John Quincy Adams came in 2nd place with 84 electoral votes. Two other candidates earned 41 and 37 electoral votes, respectively. Considering of the electoral votes won by the third and fourth place candidates, no single candidate had won the bulk of votes needed for ballot (information technology was 131 electoral votes at the fourth dimension). Ultimately, the House, with each country casting one vote, chose Adams to be president, even though he had earned fewer popular votes and fewer electoral college votes than Jackson.
The 2d scenario is the "Ralph Nader" scenario in which a left-of-centre candidate doesn't actually win any Electoral Higher votes, but siphons off votes from the Democratic candidate thereby helping the Republican to win. This is what happened in 2000 as liberal Light-green Party nominee Nader received 97,488 votes in Florida, which was more than plenty to deprive Vice President Al Gore from winning the state. Gore went on to lose Florida to then-Texas Gov. George West. Bush by but 537 votes and the Florida loss cost Gore the presidency in the Balloter College. Some argue that Greenish Political party nominee Jill Stein may have washed the aforementioned thing to Clinton in 2016. Stein received more votes in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania than the margin of Clinton's loss in each of those states. In other words, if all of the Stein voters had instead voted for Clinton, then Clinton would have won those iii states and would have been elected president. (Some have suggested that Texas man of affairs Ross Perot hurt the candidacy of then-President George H.Due west. Bush-league when he pulled nearly xix% of the popular vote in the 1992 election. Leave polls and pre-election polls showed he didn't practice that. Instead, Perot pulled an even amount of support from Bush and so-Arkansas Gov. Beak Clinton, who won the three-way race.)
Both of these scenarios are nightmare possibilities for Democrats if a moderate Democrat such as Schultz were to run as an independent and either win some states or win but enough votes to stop the Democratic nominee from winning some states. Both results are disastrous for Democrats.
Schultz's only option would be to win an outright majority in the Balloter College, which is extraordinarily difficult. Obviously there are caveats to be considered such as the possibility of a rogue Republican defecting from Trump or a change in the makeup of the congressional delegations more in the Democrats' favor in the 2022 election, only the reality is that the Constitution makes a third-party presidency very difficult to accomplish.
Every bit much as Americans may say that they desire a viable tertiary-party pick, the Founding Fathers designed the Constitution in a way that makes it near impossible to have three viable parties competing in a presidential election without the Firm getting involved. If the brand-upward of the Firm is like in 2022 and three candidates split up the Balloter College, then the result will probable yield a Republican president. And, right now, that's probably not the result those Americans seeking another pick are hoping for.
Source: https://www.cnn.com/2019/01/28/politics/howard-schultz-electoral-college-difficulty/index.html
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